Short-term declines in job numbers in the region shouldn’t be overemphasised, as they tend not to be sustained. The latest growth rate of 2.7% is below the national growth of 4%, but this follows a situation three months earlier where regional growth of 3.6% exceeded the national growth of 2.9%. It’s likely that a period of weak job growth in the region has concluded which could have a beneficial effect for Hawkes Bay property finances.
The return of international visitors could boost the region’s job growth, but recent flooding might lead to some jobs disappearing permanently due to repair and reconstruction decisions that are still uncertain. Nonetheless, there’s little indication that the flooding will have a lasting negative impact on the housing market, considering that all areas in the country are susceptible to climate change effects. However, a reasonable expectation is that demand for properties and property finances in flood-prone locations might weaken.
Traditionally, the unemployment rate in the Hawke’s Bay/Gisborne region is higher than the national average. The latest rates are similar at 3.6% and 3.5% respectively. Interestingly, since 2021, the region’s extra unemployment has been lower than in previous years.
Source data by Tony Alexander and First Mortgage Trust.
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